IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast but Warns of Uneven Outlook
publishers 53articles 69first reported 5 Oct, 09:29 UTCdeveloping since 5 Oct · 28 editions
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, saying resilient advanced economies and investment in artificial intelligence have partly offset disruptions from the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices. Its forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.4%.
The IMF said risks remain tilted to the downside, citing commodity-price volatility, inflation, trade fragmentation and the possibility that expected productivity gains from AI may not materialize. It warned that energy-importing and low-income countries are especially vulnerable, while advanced economies benefiting from AI investment have generally fared better.
India received one of the largest upgrades, with fiscal-year growth now projected at 7% in 2026-27, up from 6.4% in July, supported by domestic demand and services. South Korea’s forecast rose 0.7 percentage point to 3.3% as semiconductor exports surged. The IMF also increased its 2026 projections for the United Kingdom to 1.3% and Japan to 0.7%.
The outlook was weaker for several emerging economies. China’s 2026 growth forecast was trimmed to 4.5%, while Brazil’s was reduced to 2.2% and Russia’s to 0.9%. The IMF cut Argentina’s forecast sharply to 2.1% from 4%, citing weaker activity, subdued domestic demand and restrictive financial conditions. It also raised Argentina’s estimates for inflation and unemployment.
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy had remained resilient but was under growing strain, with risks tilted to the downside.
HOW THIS STORY WAS MADE
Written from 8 articles, 8 with the publisher's own text; 8 independent newsrooms once syndicated copies count as one; this version written 198 h after the record first saw the story; the editor revised it.
- Publishers
- 53
- Source articles
- 69
- Given to the writer
- 8, 8 with the article's own text
- Independent newsrooms
- 8
- This version written
- 198 h after the record first saw the story
- Second model (editor)
- revised
- Publication gate
- passed
- Human review
- none
WHAT THE EDITOR DID
The second model checked the writer's draft against the same sources and changed it before publication. Struck words were in the draft; underlined words are its corrections.
WHAT IT FLAGGED editor revise: Remove the unsupported specifics attributed to Tenreyro while preserving the sourced warning about resilience under strain and downside risks. - "IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy had remained resilient but was under growing strain, particularly as prolonged conflict and elevated energy costs pressure household spending and public finances.": The sources support Tenreyro saying the global economy was resilient but under strain with downside risks, but they do not show her specifically saying prolonged conflict and energy costs pressure household spending and public finances.
THE DRAFT AND THE CHANGES
IMF Raises 2026 Global Growth Forecast but Warns of Uneven Outlook
The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, saying resilient advanced economies and investment in artificial intelligence have partly offset disruptions from the Middle East conflict and higher energy prices. Its forecast for 2027 remained unchanged at 3.4%.
The IMF said risks remain tilted to the downside, citing commodity-price volatility, inflation, trade fragmentation and the possibility that expected productivity gains from AI may not materialize. It warned that energy-importing and low-income countries are especially vulnerable, while advanced economies benefiting from AI investment have generally fared better.
India received one of the largest upgrades, with fiscal-year growth now projected at 7% in 2026-27, up from 6.4% in July, supported by domestic demand and services. South Korea’s forecast rose 0.7 percentage point to 3.3% as semiconductor exports surged. The IMF also increased its 2026 projections for the United Kingdom to 1.3% and Japan to 0.7%.
The outlook was weaker for several emerging economies. China’s 2026 growth forecast was trimmed to 4.5%, while Brazil’s was reduced to 2.2% and Russia’s to 0.9%. The IMF cut Argentina’s forecast sharply to 2.1% from 4%, citing weaker activity, subdued domestic demand and restrictive financial conditions. It also raised Argentina’s estimates for inflation and unemployment.
IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy had remained resilient but was under growing strain, particularlywith asrisks prolongedtilted conflictto andthe elevated energy costs pressure household spending and public finances.downside.
Written by a language model from the sources above, then checked by a second model that may only cut, attribute or correct. How it works →