IMF raises global growth forecast while warning of debt, AI and war risks
publishers 57articles 75first reported 7 Oct, 02:29 UTCdeveloping since 7 Oct · 16 editions
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from the 3.0% projected in July, while warning that high debt, a potential reversal in artificial intelligence investment and the prolonged Middle East war threaten the outlook. The fund expects growth to rebound to 3.4% in 2027, after expanding 3.5% in 2025.
At the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the United States and other wealthy countries to rein in deficits, saying stronger growth alone would not resolve the US national debt of more than $40 trillion. She said mounting global debt and high interest rates were putting particular pressure on low-income countries.
Georgieva also called for safeguards and an ethical framework for AI, warning that its risks could exceed its benefits if anticipated productivity gains fail to arrive quickly. She supported industry standards developed with governments and broader society. Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark backed regulation and independent evaluation of AI systems.
The IMF projected that the Middle East and Central Asia would contract 0.3% in 2026 as war disrupts infrastructure and energy traffic. Saudi Arabia’s economy is forecast to shrink 3.3%. IMF regional director Jihad Azour said Gulf economies would not return to their pre-war growth path in the medium term because of lasting damage and added resilience costs.
Separately, IMF Western Hemisphere director Nigel Chalk said Colombia’s fiscal path was unsustainable, citing a primary deficit of 3.5% of GDP and debt near 60% of GDP. An IMF technical mission is expected in Bogotá in early November.
HOW THIS STORY WAS MADE
Written from 8 articles, 5 with the publisher's own text; 8 independent newsrooms once syndicated copies count as one; this version written 226 h after the record first saw the story; the editor kept it as written.
- Publishers
- 57
- Source articles
- 75
- Given to the writer
- 8, 5 with the article's own text
- Independent newsrooms
- 8
- This version written
- 226 h after the record first saw the story
- Second model (editor)
- kept as written
- Publication gate
- passed
- Human review
- none
WHAT THE EDITOR DID
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