Israel heads into closely contested election with no bloc assured a majority

Israelis vote Tuesday in the country’s first parliamentary election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 and the wars that followed across the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking another term against an opposition led in the polls by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot.

Four final polls cited by The Irish Times projected 48 to 54 seats for Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc and 52 to 56 for the opposing bloc, leaving both short of the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party placed slightly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud in those surveys.

Under Israel’s proportional system, parties must receive at least 3.25 percent of the vote to enter parliament, and coalition negotiations determine who governs. If no majority can be assembled, a minority government is possible; otherwise, another election could follow, with Netanyahu remaining interim prime minister.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise about one-fifth of the population, could influence the result. Recent polls cited by Middle East Eye put their expected turnout at 64 to 68 percent, up from 54 percent in 2022. The two Arab party groupings are projected to win about 14 seats. Eisenkot has indicated that he prefers a minority coalition supported externally by Arab parties, while several right-wing opposition parties have rejected relying on them.

The campaign has focused heavily on security, responsibility for the October 7 attack and Netanyahu’s conduct of the subsequent wars. Exit polls are expected when voting ends, but formation of a government could take weeks or months if neither bloc secures a majority.