IMF raises global growth outlook but warns of AI, debt and war risks
publishers 50articles 64first reported 7 Oct, 02:29 UTCdeveloping since 7 Oct · 16 editions
The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global growth forecast while warning that an artificial intelligence-driven market correction, cyberattacks, rising sovereign debt and widening conflict could disrupt the world economy and financial system.
The IMF expects global output to expand 3.1% in 2026, up from its 3.0% forecast in July but below the 3.5% recorded in 2025. It projects growth will recover to 3.4% in 2027.
In its Global Financial Stability Report, released during the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, the fund said weaker-than-expected AI investment or profitability could trigger a market correction and sharply tighten financial conditions. It also warned that severe cyber incidents could undermine confidence and disrupt financial institutions and critical market infrastructure. Higher energy prices could push up inflation and bond yields, potentially prompting tighter monetary policy.
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva urged the United States and other wealthy countries to curb deficits as mounting debt and high interest costs put pressure on poorer nations. The fund separately advised Britain to continue reducing its deficit and use cost-of-living support sparingly to avoid reigniting inflation.
The IMF also projected a 0.3% contraction in the Middle East and Central Asia in 2026 amid war-related disruption, including a 3.3% contraction in Saudi Arabia. Regional director Jihad Azour said damaged infrastructure and additional resilience spending would prevent Gulf economies from returning to their pre-war growth path in the medium term.
HOW THIS STORY WAS MADE
Written from 8 articles, 5 with the publisher's own text; 8 independent newsrooms once syndicated copies count as one; this version written 192 h after the record first saw the story; the editor kept it as written.
- Publishers
- 50
- Source articles
- 64
- Given to the writer
- 8, 5 with the article's own text
- Independent newsrooms
- 8
- This version written
- 192 h after the record first saw the story
- Second model (editor)
- kept as written
- Publication gate
- passed
- Human review
- none
WHAT THE EDITOR DID
The second model checked the writer's draft against the same sources and published it as written.
Written by a language model from the sources above, then checked by a second model that may only cut, attribute or correct. How it works →