UN report says 1.5°C warming limit will be exceeded, urges brief overshoot

A new United Nations report says global temperatures are set to exceed the Paris Agreement’s preferred limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, but rapid emissions reductions could limit the extent and duration of that overshoot.

The U.N. Environment Programme’s *Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return*, released Wednesday, projects warming of about 2.6°C by the end of the century under the current trajectory, according to The New York Times. That forecast is roughly 0.3°C higher than last year’s estimate, with about half of the increase attributed to the United States abandoning its climate pledge.

The report describes a possible path back toward 1.5°C, though it would require global emissions to fall by nearly 20% over the next four years. Under that scenario, warming would peak at about 1.7°C to 1.8°C around midcentury before declining toward 1.5°C over the following 50 years. Global temperatures have already risen about 1.4°C since preindustrial times.

Governments and institutions are also expanding preparations for climate impacts. The European Investment Bank plans to double climate-adaptation financing to at least €30 billion by 2030, targeting energy networks, public buildings, water systems and agriculture. Canada’s 2026 climate assessment projects that western Canadian glaciers will largely disappear by 2100, while the United Arab Emirates has outlined health planning for heat-related illness, respiratory and cardiovascular disease, and infections spread through insects, food and water.